--- description: "CDS basis arbitrage exploits the mispricing between a bond's credit spread and its CDS spread — when the CDS basis is negative (bond spread too high), buy the bond and buy CDS protection to lock in a risk-free profit." tags: [fixed-income, arbitrage, cds, credit-spread, basis] --- # CDS Basis Arbitrage **Section**: 5.14 | **Asset Class**: Fixed Income | **Type**: Arbitrage / Credit ## Overview A credit default swap (CDS) provides insurance against default on a bond. In theory, the CDS spread should equal the bond yield spread over the risk-free rate, making the insured bond equivalent to a risk-free instrument. The CDS basis is the difference between these two spreads, and deviations from zero create arbitrage opportunities. ## Construction / Mechanics **CDS basis**: ``` CDS basis = CDS spread - bond spread (417) ``` where bond spread = bond yield - risk-free rate. **Arbitrage logic**: - CDS spread should ≈ bond spread (both represent compensation for default risk) - If CDS basis ≠ 0 (and |basis| exceeds transaction costs), an arbitrage opportunity exists **Negative basis trade** (most common): - CDS basis < 0: bond spread > CDS spread → bond is relatively cheap - Trade: **buy the bond** (receive the high spread) + **buy CDS protection** (pay the lower CDS spread) - Net P&L per dollar of insured debt: bond spread - CDS spread = -basis > 0 - Result: a nearly risk-free positive carry, since the CDS makes the bond effectively risk-free **Positive basis trade** (less common in practice): - CDS basis > 0: CDS spread > bond spread → CDS protection is expensive relative to bond - Trade: sell the bond + sell CDS protection (write CDS) - In practice, this often means unwinding an existing position (already owning both the bond and CDS) ## Payoff / Return Profile - Earns the absolute value of the CDS basis as a near-riskless spread. - Position closed when basis converges back to zero. - The trade is essentially a carry trade: positive carry from the basis for as long as it persists. ## Key Parameters / Signals - CDS basis = CDS spread - bond spread: the primary signal - Transaction cost threshold: |basis| must exceed bid-ask spreads and financing costs - Sign of basis: negative → buy bond + buy CDS; positive → sell bond + sell CDS ## Variations - **Synthetic bond replication**: CDS + risk-free bond (e.g., Treasury repo) replicates a corporate bond; mispricing between the two creates the arbitrage. ## Notes - CDS protection makes the bond synthetically risk-free, but counterparty risk on the CDS remains. - Negative basis arbitrage requires financing the bond purchase (repo market); the repo rate affects net P&L. - The CDS basis can persist or widen during stress periods (e.g., 2008 financial crisis) before eventually converging, creating significant mark-to-market losses in the interim. - Liquidity risk: corporate bonds may be illiquid, making it difficult to close the position at fair value. - In the positive basis case, selling a corporate bond short is operationally challenging.