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Expand model tag support: add GLM-5.1, simplify Anthropic IDs, scan tags anywhere in message

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- Flink update_bars debouncing
- update_bars subscription idempotency bugfix
- Price decimal correction bugfix of previous commit
- Add GLM-5.1 model tag alongside renamed GLM-5
- Use short Anthropic model IDs (sonnet/haiku/opus) instead of full version strings
- Allow @tags anywhere in message content, not just at start
- Return hasOtherContent flag instead of trimmed rest string
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- Update workspace knowledge base references to platform/workspace and platform/shapes
- Hierarchical knowledge base catalog
- 151 Trading Strategies knowledge base articles
- Shapes knowledge base article
- MutateShapes tool instead of workspace patch
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---
description: "Futures calendar spread strategy that takes simultaneous long/short positions in near-month and deferred-month contracts to bet on supply/demand fundamentals while reducing overall market volatility exposure."
tags: [futures, calendar-spread, term-structure, spread-trading]
---
# Calendar Spread
**Section**: 10.2 | **Asset Class**: Futures | **Type**: Spread Trading / Relative Value
## Overview
A calendar spread (also called a time spread or intra-commodity spread) involves simultaneously buying and selling futures contracts on the same underlying commodity or asset but with different delivery months. By taking offsetting positions, the trader reduces exposure to outright price moves and focuses on the relative pricing of near versus deferred contracts, which reflects supply-and-demand fundamentals and storage costs.
## Construction / Mechanics
**Bull spread**: Buy a near-month futures contract, sell a deferred-month futures contract.
- P&L = price change of near-month - price change of deferred-month
- Benefits when near-month appreciates relative to deferred (supply tightening, demand surge)
**Bear spread**: Sell a near-month futures contract, buy a deferred-month futures contract.
- P&L = price change of deferred-month - price change of near-month
- Benefits when deferred-month appreciates relative to near-month (supply glut, weak demand)
**Economic rationale**: For commodity futures, near-month contracts react more strongly to current supply and demand imbalances than deferred contracts. Therefore:
- Expect low supply + high demand → use a **bull spread**
- Expect high supply + low demand → use a **bear spread**
## Return Profile
Profits from changes in the spread between near and deferred contract prices. The outright directional market risk is substantially reduced (though not fully eliminated) relative to an outright futures position. The strategy is driven by term structure dynamics, convenience yield changes, storage cost changes, and short-term supply/demand imbalances.
## Key Parameters / Signals
| Parameter | Description |
|-----------|-------------|
| Near-month contract | The shorter-dated futures leg |
| Deferred-month contract | The longer-dated futures leg |
| Spread = near - deferred | Positive → backwardation; negative → contango |
| Bull signal | Expected low supply and high demand (buy spread) |
| Bear signal | Expected high supply and low demand (sell spread) |
## Variations
- **Skip-month spread**: skip one contract month between the two legs to amplify the spread move.
- **Butterfly spread**: three legs (buy near, sell middle, buy far) to isolate curvature of the term structure.
- **Crack spread** (energy): spread between crude oil and refined product futures (captures refining margin rather than a pure calendar spread).
- **Inter-commodity spread**: similar mechanics but between related but different commodities (e.g., corn vs. wheat).
## Notes
- While market exposure is reduced relative to outright futures, calendar spreads are not market-neutral; correlation between legs can break down during stress events.
- Margin requirements for calendar spreads are typically lower than for outright futures because exchanges recognise the reduced directional risk.
- Liquidity in deferred contracts is typically lower than in near-month contracts; wide bid-ask spreads on the deferred leg can erode profits.
- For financial futures (equity index, interest rate), the spread is primarily driven by carry (financing cost and dividend/coupon income) rather than physical supply and demand.