Expand model tag support: add GLM-5.1, simplify Anthropic IDs, scan tags anywhere in message
- Flink update_bars debouncing - update_bars subscription idempotency bugfix - Price decimal correction bugfix of previous commit - Add GLM-5.1 model tag alongside renamed GLM-5 - Use short Anthropic model IDs (sonnet/haiku/opus) instead of full version strings - Allow @tags anywhere in message content, not just at start - Return hasOtherContent flag instead of trimmed rest string - Only trigger greeting stream when tag has no other content - Update workspace knowledge base references to platform/workspace and platform/shapes - Hierarchical knowledge base catalog - 151 Trading Strategies knowledge base articles - Shapes knowledge base article - MutateShapes tool instead of workspace patch
This commit is contained in:
49
gateway/knowledge/trading/strategies/etfs/leveraged-etfs.md
Normal file
49
gateway/knowledge/trading/strategies/etfs/leveraged-etfs.md
Normal file
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
description: "Exploits the negative drift of leveraged ETF pairs by simultaneously shorting both a leveraged ETF and its inverse counterpart tracking the same index, capturing decay from daily rebalancing compounding."
|
||||
tags: [etfs, leveraged-etf, letf, short-volatility, decay]
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Leveraged ETFs (LETFs)
|
||||
|
||||
**Section**: 4.5 | **Asset Class**: ETFs | **Type**: Short-Volatility / Structural Decay
|
||||
|
||||
## Overview
|
||||
A leveraged (or inverse) ETF seeks to deliver a fixed multiple (2x, 3x) or the inverse (-1x, -2x, -3x) of the daily return of its underlying index. To maintain the target daily leverage, LETFs must rebalance every day — buying when the market is up and selling when it is down. This daily rebalancing creates a negative drift (volatility decay) in the long run, which can be exploited by shorting both a leveraged ETF and its corresponding leveraged inverse ETF on the same underlying index.
|
||||
|
||||
## Construction / Signal
|
||||
A leveraged ETF with leverage factor L rebalances daily to maintain L × (daily index return). This requires:
|
||||
- **On up days**: Buy more of the underlying index
|
||||
- **On down days**: Sell the underlying index
|
||||
|
||||
The compounding of daily returns with daily rebalancing creates a path-dependent negative drift over time:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
LETF cumulative return < L × (index cumulative return) [for L > 1 or L < -1]
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Strategy**: Short both a leveraged ETF (e.g., 2x) and its leveraged inverse ETF (-2x) on the same underlying index. Both positions decay in value over time due to daily rebalancing, generating profit from the combined negative drift.
|
||||
|
||||
Proceeds from both short positions can be invested in an uncorrelated asset (e.g., a Treasury ETF).
|
||||
|
||||
## Entry / Exit Rules
|
||||
- **Entry**: Simultaneously short a leveraged ETF (e.g., 2x long) and its corresponding inverse leveraged ETF (e.g., 2x inverse) on the same underlying index.
|
||||
- **Exit**: Positions are held as long as both ETFs continue to decay; may require periodic rebalancing of the short pair as relative prices change.
|
||||
- **Capital deployment**: Invest the short proceeds into a Treasury ETF or other low-risk asset.
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Parameters
|
||||
- **Leverage factor**: 2x or 3x (and their -2x or -3x inverses)
|
||||
- **Underlying index**: Same index for both the leveraged and inverse leveraged ETF
|
||||
- **Rebalancing of short pair**: Periodically rebalance the short positions to maintain equal dollar exposure
|
||||
- **Volatility regime**: Decay is larger in high-volatility regimes
|
||||
|
||||
## Variations
|
||||
- **3x pair**: Short a 3x leveraged ETF and its -3x inverse (higher decay, higher risk)
|
||||
- **Single-leg short**: Short only the leveraged (not inverse) ETF when directional bias exists
|
||||
- **Volatility regime filter**: Enter positions only in high-volatility environments where decay is expected to be larger
|
||||
|
||||
## Notes
|
||||
- The negative drift from daily rebalancing is mathematically guaranteed over time for both the leveraged and inverse ETF, making this a structural (not purely alpha-dependent) source of return.
|
||||
- **Key risk**: In the short term, if one leg of the short pair (e.g., the inverse ETF) has a large positive return (the market rallies strongly), the short position in the inverse ETF suffers a sizable loss. This short-term risk can be significant even though the long-term drift is negative.
|
||||
- The strategy can have a significant downside in the short term if one short leg moves sharply against the position.
|
||||
- Transaction costs (borrow costs for short selling LETFs, bid-ask spreads) must be carefully considered; LETF borrow rates can be elevated.
|
||||
- Volatility decay is proportional to variance: approximately `L(L-1)/2 × sigma^2` per period for a leverage factor L.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user